September the 2nd, 2020 – Dr Krunoslav Capak, a name which has become somewhat of a household one since the pandemic took hold in Croatia, has stated that we can expect a truly significant drop in coronavirus cases, he said that the model being used and the maths involved can even show when that will occur.
Croatia has seen an unfortunate rise in the number of people infected with the new coronavirus over recent weeks, with a number of European countries placing it back on their ”red lists” and warning their citizens against travel to the country. The United Kingdom and the Netherlands were among the most prominent European nations to do so, along with Germany placing two croatian counties, as opposed to the entire country, on their ”no go” list.
As Poslovni Dnevnik writes on the 2nd of September, 2020, Dr Krunoslav Capak has stated that there are no new hotspots in Croatia, and that a larger number of those who are already in self-isolation are among the newly comfirmed coronavirus patients.
He also said that a significant drop in the number of newly infected people is expected soon.
”There are certain mathematical models which are used. By entering the data on new patients, the R0 is calculated, as are other parameters, such as the number of infected, mobility… Different models include different parameters.
The model we use in the CNIPH, and we also use other models and utilise mathematicians who make our assessments, have been showing for some time that we have introduced good measures and that our numbers will start to fall. This regards a trend, and doesn’t just mean that the numbers will be below 200 or 100.
How much this will be and when it will reach an acceptable level, we’re yet to see. The current R0 predicts a decline. These are mathematical models that can be disrupted by new events, hotspots, and unexpected numbers of sufferers, so new numbers need to be inserted into the calculation. We expect a significant decline in mid-September and early October, but I must emphasise that this is if all goes by our model,” said Dr Krunoslav Capak.
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