More good news for the Croatian economy from the experts.
Macroeconomists estimate that the Croatian economy, thanks to the strengthening of consumption, exports and investments, in the third quarter of this year grew by more than 2 percent, the fastest since the second quarter of 2008. At the end of next week, the State Bureau of Statistics will publish the first estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter, and eight macroeconomists who participated in Hina’s poll estimate on average that the economy grew by 2.2 percent compared to same period last year. All of them expect growth in a range between 1.6 and 3 percent, reports Poslovni.hr on November 22, 2015.
If their estimates are correct, it would be the fourth consecutive quarter of GDP growth. In the second quarter, the economy grew by 1.2 percent year on year. It would be the highest economic growth since the second quarter of 2008, when GDP grew by 2.9 percent on an annual basis.
Macroeconomists stated that the growth was the consequence of the strengthening of consumer spending, which is the largest component of GDP. This is indicated by growth in retail sales in the third quarter by about 2.2 percent compared to the same period last year. “A strong tourist season, lower prices of oil and the decreased income tax burden have improved disposable income, which implies growth of personal consumption of about 1 percent”, one of the macroeconomists said.
In September, retail sales grew for the 14th consecutive month, which has not been recorded since 2007, two years before the recession. Growth in exports also has a positive influence on the economy. According to data, in the first nine months of this year Croatia exported goods worth 64 billion kuna, which is 10.5 percent more than in the same period last year. This is mainly thanks to the growth of the EU economy, which is the largest Croatian foreign trade partner. Imports rose by 5.5 percent, reaching 104 billion kuna.
Thanks to positive developments in the first nine months of this year, all macroeconomists have increased their estimates of economic growth for 2015. In the latest survey, the eight macroeconomists estimated on average that this year GDP will grow by about 1 percent, while three months ago they expected growth of 0.5 percent. Their forecasts of growth are in the range between 1 and 1.2 percent.
Recently, Croatian National Bank has also increased its estimate of economic growth for this year, from 0.5 to 1.2 percent. In its autumn forecast, the European Commission has increased the forecast for growth of Croatian GDP from 0.3 to 1.1 percent, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the economy will grow by 0.8 percent.
By all accounts, 2015 will be the first year of the growth of the Croatian economy after six years of recession.
