RBA Analysts Say 2021 Growth Projection of 9% Subject to Positive Risks

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Image: Raiffeisenbank Austria/Facebook
Image: Raiffeisenbank Austria/Facebook

In early November 2021, RBA analysts had expected a GDP growth rate of 7% in 2021. However, in late November official statistics showed that GDP in Q3 2021 had risen 15.8% compared to the same period in 2020, revising their initial estimate and forecasting that economy in 2021 could grow by more than 9%.

“We also expect the last quarter to bring solid economic activity growth that would be closer to the first three quarters, when the economy grew at a rate of 10.6%. In any case, real economic activity in 2021 managed to exceed the level of 2019, thus bridging the negative domestic product gap,” the latest publication says.

RBA analysts expect GDP to grow by 4.4% in 2022.

“The year 2022 should see the continuation of solid growth rates, albeit markedly lower due to the effect of the base period,” the analysts say.

This year’s growth is expected to be spurred by investments, supported primarily by ample funding under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, but RBA analysts warn that “disruptions to supply chains and growing costs continue to pose a certain risk, causing increased uncertainty, thus posing a risk to investment activity, notably in the private sector.”

For more, check out our business section.


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