March the 30th, 2026 – Scientists have weighed in on freak weather events and climate change, claiming that Croatia will more than likely continue facing serious changes and being a victim of violent storms.
As Index vijest/news writes, the destructive and exceptionally powerful storm that hit Zagreb and the wider region can no longer be considered a rare occurrence that happens once in a hundred years or so.
Scientists have warned that such extremes could repeat themselves every ten years, and perhaps more often, as a result of climate change, warming seas and a specific combination of atmospheric conditions that created a storm the likes of which the region has never seen before. The main message is that weather is changing faster than society can adapt, as reported by HRT.
croatia will continue to be battered by violent storms – far more regularly than previously thought
After the last strong storm that devastated Zagreb, scientists are increasingly questioning old climate estimates. Atmospheric physicist Branko Grisogono appeared on the HRT programme “Studio 4” and warned viewers that the concept of the “return period” must be urgently changed. “These return times need to be revised. What was once in 100 years is clearly going far below that – and this applies to more and more climatic processes,” he said.
Slovenian climatologist Lučka Kajfež Bogataj agreed with him. “What used to happen once every 100 years, in the future will happen maybe every 10 years,” she added, emphasising that extremes are becoming the new normal. The most recent violent storm was not an isolated incident. Before reaching Croatia, it hit Slovenia, especially the Kranj and Gorenjska regions, regions that are not usually known for strong winds.
“We don’t remember weather patterns like this. The gusts reached up to 140 km/h, which is unimaginable for that area,” Kajfež Bogataj pointed out. The regional nature of the storm confirms that it was a wider atmospheric disturbance, not a local anomaly.
what actually happened and why were these gusts of winds so strange?
According to Branko Grisogono, the key lies in a complex combination of several factors: the active North Atlantic, the penetration of cold air towards the Mediterranean, the formation of a cyclone over the Gulf of Genoa, which further strengthened over the warm Adriatic and collided with mountain ranges such as Medvednica.
“It’s a chain of events. If we remove one link, we won’t get such extreme speeds,” he explained. Of particular importance was the phenomenon of mountain waves and the partial resonance of the atmosphere. “Air currents and mountains like Medvednica create an amplification effect – that was the key issue here,” he added.
Many people picked up on a very unusual pattern – short but extremely strong, violent gusts that came in waves. “It’s not a bura or a jugo, but dynamically it’s similar to mountain winds. These refuels, as they’re often called, are the result of resonance and layers of air at a height of 2 to 4 kilometres,” explained Grisogono. In other words, it was a rare combination of meteorological and geographical conditions.
yes, climate change is the main culprit for such storms
Although there are several factors involved, the scientific community is increasingly pointing the finger at climate change. Lučka Kajfež Bogataj leaves no room for doubt. “Science shows that human influence is at least 95%. Such an increase in temperature has never been recorded in our history,” she emphasised. A particular problem is extreme warming – the Mediterranean Sea has never been warmer, continental parts are recording very high temperatures, and the contrasts between the warm south and the cold north are becoming increasingly pronounced. “This temperature contrast further intensifies extreme weather events,” she said.
If these devastating changes can no longer be stopped, the question arises whether the consequences can be mitigated. The answer is yes, but it requires a systematic approach.
“We need a plan. We cannot act haphazardly. We must introduce climate-safe construction,” emphasised Kajfež Bogataj. This includes stronger and more resilient roofs, adaptation of urban planning, new construction standards and the involvement of insurance companies. “These are not futuristic technologies, it is a matter of planning and political will,” she said.
croatia has no climate centre
Grisogono warns of another key problem. “Croatia lacks a climate centre that would consolidate data and lead the strategy,” she stated. Without such an institution, it is difficult to plan long-term measures, especially in a political system that thinks in four-year terms and nothing further than that.
