November the 30th, 2025 – Slower Croatian GDP growth is expected with predictions and estimates from statisticians on economic activity offering a mixed bag.
As Poslovni Dnevnik/Jadranka Dozan writes, the first estimates made by statisticians on Croatia’s economic activity in the third quarter of this year confirmed the slowdown in growth dynamics. This comes after (according to the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) the annual rate in the second quarter accelerated to 3.6 percent according to original data. In the three main summer months, the real growth of economic activity slowed down to 2.3 percent compared to the third quarter. According to seasonally adjusted data, the annual rate is actually slightly higher – standing at 2.6 percent. If we look at current trends, this slowdown is reflected in 0.3 percent growth in the third compared to the second quarter after activity had strengthened by 0.9 percent in real terms back in spring, according to the first official estimates.
slower croatian gdp growth isn’t a shock
The slowdown in the pace of economic activity and as such slower Croatian GDP growth is not surprising. This was indicated by various monthly statistical indicators for the period from July to September, as well as by the Croatian National Bank’s rapid GDP estimation model or the CEIZ business cycle index of the Economic Institute of Zagreb, which are also based on CBS data. However, it remains to be noted that this slowdown turned out to be somewhat stronger than the recent estimates indicated by both the CNB model (which suggested a slowdown in the annual rate to 3 percent) and the Economic Institute index, which recently derived an estimate of 2.5 percent year-on-year real quarterly Croatian GDP growth from it.
In any case, growth is still being driven by domestic demand, supported on the one hand by real wage and employment growth (although this is also occurring at a slower pace), and on the other by the still abundant inflow of EU funds. When it comes to household consumption, its real increase is still supported by the relatively strong growth of non-purpose cash loans.
The component of Croatian GDP that recorded the most significant acceleration during the third quarter is fixed capital investment, the year-on-year growth of which accelerated from 4.9 to 7.5 percent in real terms. Government spending also accelerated (from 3.3 to 3.8 percent), while household spending, for example, slowed from 4 percent (in the second quarter) and dropped down to 1.9 percent.
exports, goods and services
Exports of goods and services are the only component to record a decline – in real terms, they fell by 1.1 percent, which is entirely the result of a decrease in the services sector. That is mainly driven by the (more modest) results of the tourist season marked by a certain level of stagnation in the number of overnight stays. The total quarterly exports of services, in real terms, are 4.6 percent lower year-on-year, while the exports of goods are 4.1 percent higher than in the third quarter of last year. In contrast, on the import side, the increase in goods is slight (0.3 percent), but thanks to the double-digit growth rate in services (+12.7 percent), total imports increased by 2.4 percent in real terms, which ultimately resulted in a negative contribution to net foreign demand.
Given the estimates related to investments, it isn’t unexpected that, from the production side, by activity, the highest growth in gross value added (GVA) was recorded by construction, the growth of which accelerated further – from 7.1 to 7.3 percent. Total GVA compared to the third quarter of last year has been 2.1 percent higher, and faster than average growth has also been recorded in financial activities (+4.3%), manufacturing industry (+3.3%) and the group of activities within public administration and defence, education and healthcare and social welfare (+3.0%). Although the GVA of the large block of activities that includes trade, transport and storage, accommodation and catering has significantly slowed down (from 5 to 1.8 percent in real terms), its contribution to growth is still the most significant considering the structure of gross value added.
croatian gdp growth for 2025
All in all, for the whole of 2025, a real annual Croatian GDP growth rate of 3.2 percent is reasonably expected, which will once again place the country among the Eurozone countries with the strongest growth, according to Zrinka Živković Matijević, chief economist at Raiffeisen Bank. The forecast is of course exposed to risks that growth will be slightly lower than expected, she pointed out. She added that domestic demand should remain the main driver of the economy throughout 2026, although the growth intensity of these components will probably be somewhat more modest than it was during previous years, so the bank is counting on a solid 2.6 percent growth in real GDP next year. It is implied that increased geopolitical uncertainty remains the main risk to this projection.
