March the 27th, 2026 – Croatian tourism is looking set to benefit from general fears of distant travel as the American and Israeli attacks on Iran disrupt the sector for many countries closer to the fallout.
As Poslovni Dnevnik/Edita Vlahovic Zuvela writes, the ongoing war in the Middle East and fears of a new wave of energy and travel price hikes have loomed over the world. Despite those woes, Croatian tourism is entering the 2026 season with more optimism than panic. While the global tourism market is recovering faster than previously predicted, Croatian tourism has a real chance not only to match, but also to exceed last year’s results as people are abandoning more distant travel plans.
croatian tourism will benefit, but that doesn’t mean the sector can sit back and relax
While this is excellent, experts are still warning that behind the good numbers lie a number of structural weaknesses – from the rapid rise in service prices to the chronic shortage of qualified labour – which make this season more sensitive than it seems at first glance. In such an environment, the Croatian National Tourist Board (HTZ) is also sending out messages of caution.
“It’s still too premature to draw any real conclusions regarding this year’s tourism results, especially in the context of the situation unfolding across the Middle East. However, so far this year, bookings for Croatia in most markets, especially European ones, are either at last year’s level or slightly better. We must also take into account the impact of last-minute bookings because, given the security and economic circumstances, travellers will make their final travel decisions just before their trip,” Kristjan Staničić, director of the Croatian National Tourist Board (HTZ), explained.
According to projections by the World Tourism Organisation, international tourism is expected to grow by between 3 and 4% in 2026, provided that global economic conditions remain favourable, service prices continue to correct downwards, and geopolitical conflicts do not continue to seriously escalate.
croatia is one of several countries likely to benefit from global woes
“It’s to be expected that some European travellers will replace distant destinations with trips to closer and more accessible countries. This is also indicated by data from the European Travel Commission, according to which European travellers will redirect their trips to destinations like Croatia, Italy, Spain and Malta,” said Staničić. The European Travel Commission also predicts that international arrivals to Europe will increase by around 6% in 2026.
Croatia is entering 2026 with an upward trend in tourism – 2025 exceeded the pre-pandemic year of 2019, the number of overnight stays was 3.9% higher than before the pandemic, and the season has measurably extended, according to analyses by Goran Buturac from the Institute of Economics. In 2025, June saw a 14.5% increase in overnight stays, September saw an increase of 6.3%, and the average stay of foreign guests stabilised at 4.9 nights. The tourism picture remains concentrated: Germans alone account for almost a quarter of all foreign overnight stays, while guests from just ten countries account for more than three quarters of foreign overnight stays realised across Croatia.
An additional positioning signal comes from the luxury market: according to the Virtuoso Luxe Travel Report for 2026, Croatia is ranked fifth among the most popular global destinations, described as a country that “offers everything, from the Gothic, Renaissance and Baroque architecture of Dubrovnik to the sun-drenched coast of Hvar”.
croatian now infamous prices remain an enormous thorn in its side
In contrast to the demand picture, the inflationary backdrop this season is considerably less comfortable. In February 2026, Croatia was among the EU countries with the highest inflation rate – third, behind Romania and Slovakia, with a total rate of 3.9%. While the prices of services across the EU grew at a rate of 3.4%, in Croatia they rose by as much as 7.7% on an annual basis in February, which means that services – including tourism – are becoming the main generator of inflationary pressures. The war across the Middle East has further intensified fears of a new wave of increases in the prices of energy and logistics.
The biggest limiting factor for growth, both for Croatia and across the EU, remains the lack of a skilled workforce. “It’s estimated that around 90% of small and medium-sized enterprises across the EU tourism sector have difficulty hiring qualified staff. According to the World Tourism Organisation, between 10 and 20% of jobs in the EU tourism sector will remain vacant in 2025, which is equivalent to almost one million job vacancies,” revealed Buturac.
you (still) can’t get the staff…
Here in Croatia, the problem is further exacerbated by the fact that salaries in tourism are still significantly below the economy average. The average net salary in the accommodation sector in 2025 was 10.3% lower than the average for all sectors, while salaries in the food and beverage preparation and service sector lagged behind the average by as much as 28.8%, according to Buturac’s calculations. In such conditions, it is difficult to imagine further improving the quality of service and extending the tourist season without stronger wage growth, which inevitably spills over into the prices of packages, hotel accommodation and more.
Buturac warned that ongoing inflation is destroying the relative price relationships of goods and services, which makes it difficult for Croatia to position itself in relation to competing Mediterranean destinations. In other words, Croatian tourism is entering the upcoming season with the prices of a major destination, but still with a very sensitive cost structure. While the European average for service prices is only gradually calming down, Croatian tourism is entering this season with faster cost growth, from wages and food to logistics and energy, than most competitors. This makes the pricing policy for 2026 perhaps the most sensitive point of the pre-season.
“Croatia should build its competitive advantage on high quality, safety, authenticity and the diversity of its overall offer. Special focus should be placed on the development of higher value-added products, sustainable tourism and targeted marketing activities in key source markets,” stated Staničić, who remains confident that Croatia will maintain stable tourism results.
price stabilisation
Despite the plethora of risks, trends remain very much in favour of further strengthening the Croatian tourism season. The number of arrivals and overnight stays increased throughout 2025, with a pronounced jump in domestic guests – their number of arrivals increased by 7.6% and overnight stays by 5.6% year-on-year. Foreign guests still account for around 90% of all overnight stays recorded nationwide, but the domestic market has become a more stable support, especially outside the two peak summer months.
The war unfolding in the Middle East makes the upcoming season far more uncertain, but not necessarily worse. Analyses have warned that the inflation resulting from this conflict will not bypass tourism, but at the same time, some travellers are inclined to choose closer and safer destinations in Europe, which may further boost Croatia.
“For a successful 2026, the key words will be price stabilisation and continued investment in basic capacities. Tourism in 2026 offers an opportunity for a new step forward, but it requires a wise balancing act between the desire for profit and realistic labour market opportunities, with a constant awareness that the high price must be justified by the impeccable quality of service,” Buturac pointed out.
The 2026 season is thus shaping up to be a year in which we will see just how ready Croatian tourism truly is to function in conditions of permanent global uncertainty and higher structural costs.
