July 25, 2023 – Climatologist Dunja Mazzocco Drvar spoke about the storm that hit Zagreb and Slavonia last week. She also commented on what kind of weather awaits in the coming days. It might not be unrealistic to expect tornadoes in Croatia, either.
“Last week’s storm didn’t surprise me in the sense that it was announced that something like that would happen. But the force, intensity, and extremity of the storm surprised me. I didn’t expect it to be so bad,” Mazzocco Drvar, head of the Department of Climate Activities of the Ministry of Economy, told RTL Danas, as reported by Index.
What should the alert system look like?
She was asked if the early warning system had failed, stating that Croatia doesn’t have a proper early warning system. She described what such a system should look like.
“It consists of several components; the first is the profession – someone who monitors and distributes the information. Then the second component is who delivers the information, as someone has to come up with and organize how and when that could happen and to whom.
The third component is who receives the information – whether they are civil protection services or citizens who must learn how to behave. We have a long way to go until we create a system that will be effective and serve its purpose,” said Mazzocco Drvar.
Another Storm Today
Croatian media reported the warning of a Slovenian storm hunter who says that new intense storms are threatening Croatia. The climatologist answered whether these forecasts were correct.
“I know a colleague who does this and has been following these systems for many years. He is very well versed in the state of the atmosphere; he has the time, will, and desire to analyze weather situations. From everything I see, he is right. We have a hot day ahead of us on Monday, and a new storm is coming on Tuesday. We say – refreshment, but unfortunately, that sounds too nice compared to what awaits us.
It’s hard to say whether another storm will be as strong as last Wednesday’s because such systems can’t be forecast that far in advance. Its true force and appearance, all the phenomena it brings, whether it will be large or small hail, whether it will be hurricane or stormy wind gusts, whether it will be heavy rain or showers in a localized area or a little wider – this can be seen only a few hours in advance. I am sure our forecasters will be able to detail it in time,” she said.
Tornadoes in Croatia a Real Possibility
Tornadoes appeared in the Czech Republic and Milan. Mazzocco Drvar was asked if tornadoes are also possible in Croatia. She replied that tornadoes exist in Europe, between 300 and 400 of them annually.
“That’s not insignificant, it’s quite a large number, and some people were surprised by that, considering that we usually associate them with North America, where they are most common. Again, there are three to four times fewer tornadoes in Europe than in North America. Also, to a large extent, they are significantly weaker than in America. There are few strong and extremely strong tornadoes in Europe.
We now live in a warmer atmosphere that has more and more energy and components to produce intense storms that can also manifest as tornadoes. I would say that we will have more and more such strong tornadoes in Europe, and then we can expect them in Croatia as well,” says Mazzocco Drvar.
We Will Have Increasingly Hot Summers
Mazzocco Drvar commented on the scientists’ statement that this is the coldest summer for the rest of our lives.
“If we look at it literally – that is not the case; there will be colder summers. If we look at the trend of several years and even decades, we are talking about warming and increasingly hot summers. Variations are, of course, possible, but the sure trend is that we will have an increasingly hot summer.
Data for Zagreb show that summers in the 1950s had an average of 8 hot days; in the 1980s, there were 18, and now Zagreb has an average of 28 hot days in summer,” said the climatologist for RTL Danas.
