Croatia’s Intelligence Agency Publishes Report on National Security

In 2016, there were at least seven attempts of state-sponsored cyberattacks on protected information and communication systems of Croatia’s state institutions.

The Security Intelligence Agency (SOA) has published its public report for 2017. It presents a detailed overview of the security threats facing Croatia and Europe. The SOA actively participates in the discovery and suppression of state-sponsored cyberattacks, and during 2016 there were at least seven attempts of attacks of this kind against protected information and communication systems of Croatia’s state institutions, reports Index.hr on September 15, 2017.

The region of instability around Europe continues to generate security challenges. It is an area that extends from North Africa, the Middle East to central Asia. Europe is facing security challenges from the region in the form of massive uncontrollable migrations, as well as threats of terrorism, extremism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and regional armed conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen and Ukraine. At the same time, the consequences of the crisis are also being reflected in the rise of organised crime and smuggling of people, weapons and goods, hybrid warfare and radicalisation through social networks.

The relationship between the Russian Federation and the Western states, damaged after the outbreak of the crisis in Ukraine in 2013, has not improved significantly, and in some elements, it is similar to relations during the Cold War era. Tensions in relationships are being felt in other regions, including in the Croatian neighbourhood.

Russia seeks to limit the further expansion and influence of NATO and the EU towards the east of Europe and strengthen its influence in Europe. Tensions in relations have resulted in sanctions by the West against Russia and NATO’s strengthening of the collective military defence.

The world is also facing the challenge of further proliferation of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction, causing global tensions and controversies. Terrorism is still one of the most significant threats to the security of citizens in Europe. Although ISIL has been dominant over the last few years, Al Qaeda is still active, especially in Africa, Yemen and Central Asia, and continues to plan attacks on European and other Western targets.

Although a terrorist attack on the Croatian soil is unlikely, that possibility cannot be ruled out. In the countries to the southeast of Croatia, which have radical Islamist communities, the probability of a terrorist attack is moderate, while the likelihood of terrorist attacks in Western Europe remains high.

The massive entry of migrants into Europe has continued, although the inflow through the so-called Balkan route has been significantly reduced. The migration pressures towards Europe will continue, with leading destinations primarily being developed states of western and northern Europe.

The long-term challenge for European societies associated with mass migration is the integration potential of these nations and the avoidance of the creation of closed and isolated immigrant communities that would be suitable for strengthening extremism, crime and poverty among immigrants, and developing negative attitudes towards European values ​​and consequently terrorism. Issues such as attitudes towards migration, crisis, energy security and economic issues have become a challenge in formulating common European policies.

Transnational security challenges are increasingly present. Increasing reliance on modern IT and communication technologies increases vulnerability to cyber threats. For example, there are more activities associated with the use of the so-called dark web on which many illegal transactions are taking place using virtual currencies.

Climate change has more and more effects on nature, economy and security. Climate change causes water and food shortages, natural disasters, economic hardships, political and social conflicts as well as the migration of the population.

As for the Southeast European neighbourhood, the main characteristics of these countries are weak institutions, internal political turmoil, numerous unresolved ethnic and national issues, stunted economic growth, corruption and unemployment. The region faces a slowdown in the implementation of reforms and accession to Euro-Atlantic integrations.

Still, Montenegro’s accession to NATO represents a continuation of the Euro-Atlantic perspective for Croatia’s neighbours. Although Euro-Atlantic influence is still the strongest, global rivalries are being felt in this area as well. The most obvious example is the prevented attempt of a coup in Montenegro on 16 October 2016, which had the aim of
destabilising Montenegro on the day of parliamentary elections and the eve of Montenegro’s entry into NATO.

The neighbouring countries are also confronting the rise of religious and national extremism, with particular emphasis on the strengthening of radical Islamism. There is also the Greater Serbian extremism, which includes attempts to present Croatia in a negative light in the international community, with the denial and misrepresentation of facts related to the Homeland War and its defensive character.

The phenomenon of extremists using the dissatisfaction of some of the football fan groups with the situation in Croatian sports to cause incidents and disorder during and outside sports competitions has continued. Also, some fan clubs of Serbian football clubs use anti-Croat, Chetnik and Greater Serbian symbols at sports competitions, and some of these groups include Croatian nationals as well.

Among some younger persons of Serb nationality living in Croatia, a sympathy for Greater Serbian and Chetnik ideology and symbols has been noted, especially on social networks, which for the time being does not pose a threat to national security but leads to worsening of the security situation at the local level.

The whole document (in Croatian) can be read here.

Translated from Index.hr.

 

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