Exit polls show SDP and HDZ leading.
At 7 pm, polling stations in Croatia closed and first exit poll results have been published by the national media. The distribution of seats in Parliament is projected as follows:
SDP 57
HDZ 57
MOST 12
Živi Zid 7
IDS 3
Milan Bandić 2
HDSSB 1
Pametno 1
In addition to 140 MPs elected in ten constituencies (which this exit poll covers), 3 MPs will be elected by Croatian nationals living abroad (all 3 expected to support HDZ), and 8 MPs by national minorities. It takes 76 MPs to form a government. Starting from 10 pm, the State Election Commission will announce actual results as they come in.
First reactions:
SDP and its partners from the People’s Coalition are disappointed with the exit poll results. They expected to receive a few seats more.
HDZ is somewhat optimistic that they will be able to form the next government.
MOST is very satisfied that it has managed to keep almost all the seats in Parliament it had before the Parliament was dissolved (12). They do not want to say whether HDZ president Andrej Plenković is acceptable as possible Prime Minister.
Živi Zid and its coalition partnes are extremely satisfied, since they had only one MP in last Parliament. Although they said they would not enter into any coalition, now they do not sound so sure.
Zagreb Mayor Milan Bandić and his coalition partners say they are glad they manage to defend two seats they had in the previous Parliament.
Exit poll results in constituencies
1st constituency; SDP 7 HDZ 5 MOST 1 Pametno 1
2nd constituency: SDP 6 HDZ 5 MOST 1 Milan Bandić 1 Živi Zid 1
3rd constituency: SDP 8 HDZ 4 Živi Zid 1 MOST 1
4th constituency: SDP 5 HDZ 6 MOST 1 Živi Zid 1 HDSSB 1
5th constituency: SDP 4 HDZ 8 MOST 1 Živi Zid 1
6th constituency: SDP 6 HDZ 5 MOST 1 Živi Zid 1 Milan Bandić 1
7th constituency: SDP 6 HDZ 6 MOST 1 Živi Zid 1
8th constituency: SDP 6, HDZ 3, MOST 1, Živi Zid 1, IDS 3
9th constituency: SDP 4, HDZ 8, MOST 2
10th constituency: SDP 5, HDZ 7, MOST 2
Political analyst Krešimir Macan said that trends showed that SDP was falling as elections were getting closer. Voters of Živi Zid were more motivated than MIlan Bandić’s voters, which explains their good results. Božo Skoko says that both major parties can form a government even without MOST.
If actual results are anywhere close to this projections, the most likely scenario is right-centre government of HDZ, MOST and national minority MPs.
Political analyst Žarko Puhovski says he thought HDZ would get more seats given the low turnout. He adds that MOSt could get fewer seats than in projections, which could mean that Croatia will soon have another elections. He also thinks that government in Belgrade will try to influence MPs who represent Serbian national manority.
Former HDZ president and Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor says that the next government will not stay in power long, since it will be unstable.
Journalist Nataša Božić says that we can expect negotiations similar to last year’s, with MOST and Živi Zid having the main role. According to her sources, HDZ believes that they could have majority of 80 MPs (HDZ + MOST + Milan Bandić + 3 MPs from Živi Zid + some national minorities).
HDZ deputy president Milijan Brkić says that HDZ has the most seats due to votes in the diaspora. HDZ has demonstrated that it is the strngest party and that it will govern in the next four years, with Andrej Plenković as Prime Minister. We led a positive campaign. All those who share our views are potential partners, and MOST is one of them, but HDZ will not be blackmailed.
MOST spokesperson Nikola Grmoja says that MOST is satisfied with results, given all the attacks on them.
Siniša Hajdaš-Dončić, SDP’s campaign manager, says that they expected several most seats. He believes that SDP could still win a few more seats. He still hopes to form the government with other progressive parties (Živi Zid, MOST). He says that most of MOST’s conditions are acceptable, but that negotiations in the next few days will be crucial. He does not want to talk about whether Zoran Milanović should remain if SDP president if he does not form a government.
