April the 18th, 2024 – One huge myth about Croatian voter turnout crumbled to dust yesterday – and that is that the more voters there are, the worse it is for HDZ. The theory has been turned on its head as it appears that HDZ is the clear winner.
As Index/Lukrecija Zderic writes, according to the data from the State Election Commission, which has now processed almost all polling stations (99.79%), 62.30% or 2,215,876 voters voted in yesterday’s elections. These elections were therefore third most popular in 24 years, with huge Croatian voter turnout.
The record elections in terms of Croatian voter turnout were back in 2000, when 72.85% of voters exercised their right to vote. It was then that HDZ lost power for the first time, and SDP formed the majority. In the 2015 elections, the Croatian voter turnout stood at 63.06%, which didn’t prevent HDZ from winning more seats than SDP. Who will make up the majority this year is still uncertain, but it seems that the large turnout this time was not a salvation for the opposition, which destroyed one of the most widespread myths about turnout.
Benčić before the election: Only a high turnout can secure hdz’s downfall
During the election campaign, the opposition called for a high Croatian voter turnout in order to topple HDZ from power. Sandra Benčić, the Mozemo! (We Can!) candidate, was especially vocal in this idea. She repeatedly pointed out that only a high turnout can topple HDZ. The opposite has happened.
“We’re aware that the government can be formed with all other parties from the centre to the left. That’s why it will be important that us and SDP attract as many voters as possible because only a large turnout will topple HDZ,” Sandra Benčić said before the election.
This rhetoric was also naturally used by President Zoran Milanović, as well as SDP’s Peđa Grbin. It seems however that the higher Croatian voter turnout very much failed in bringing them the sufficient number of mandates they desired in order to remove HDZ from power.
analysts also claimed that a high croatian voter turnout could topple HDZ
“I’d like to invite all citizens to go to the polls in as large a number as possible, because this is the day when we decide which direction Croatia will take over the next four years. If the people don’t do it, this corruption, clientelism, incompetence, lying and thievery will continue,” Grbin emphasised.
Politicians weren’t the only ones who saw the high turnout as an ace up their sleeve that would cause HDZ to lose the elections. Professor at the Faculty of Law Dr. Ivan Rimac told Index back in February:
“I agree that a higher turnout could change things. But the fact is that the low turnout is a consequence of the fact that people are disappointed and don’t want to hear about politics anymore or even be involved in it. On top of that, he electoral offer is just bad.”
Dr. Žarko Puhovski also agreed with him at the time, stating that a large Croatian voter turnout would significantly help the opposition parties, but that it should be at least 65%.
Raos: We can now see that the high turnout didn’t remotely worry HDZ members
Political scientist Višeslav Raos commented for Index that the high voter turnout ultimately didn’t bring down HDZ or lead the opposition to any kind of remotely convincing victory.
“During the election day at HDZ’s headquarters, we could see from the informal reactions that they were worried about the high turnout. They weren’t sure how it would be reflected, because it was always said that a high turnout would lead to a change in power. However, it it didn’t happen this time.
When we look at the first data that shows the turnout for the elections and the share of voters of individual candidate lists, then you can see that it went in the hands of those candidates who tried to mobilise their players, namely Mozemo! (We Can!) and Most (Bridge),” explained Raos.
He added that Peđa Grbin can say that the majority was in favour of changes and that they’re in the plus with Mozemo!, but that didn’t actually bring the real effect that was expected with a higher turnout.
When asked if the high turnout actually ended up helping HDZ, Raos said that this effect actually remained more or less neutral. “They were definitely not deterred by the higher Croatian voter turnout and for them it’s currently an interesting bit of proof that they don’t have to be afraid of a high turnout in future.”
“Society showed its dissatisfaction, but not in the way the opposition expected”
Puhovski, who predicted that the high turnout, around 65%, would significantly help the opposition parties, told Index today: “Society showed great dissatisfaction, but this wasn’t done in the way that the opposition expected in terms of resulting in political change. This dissatisfaction was clearly directed gradually changing the situation, and not towards radical changes,” said Puhovski.
