Both HDZ and MOST are aware that only their government guarantees stability, and no one wants to have another election.
There is no major drama in the negotiations after the recent parliamentary elections. The situation is much clearer than it was after last year’s elections. Immediately after the elections, SDP announced that it had no intention to try to form a government, since it has seven seats less than HDZ. Therefore, MOST does not really have any other option then to make a deal with HDZ, reports Večernji List on October 2, 2016.
The negotiations between HDZ and MOST are expected to end by 14 October, when the first meeting of the new Parliament will take place. Shortly thereafter, Parliament will confirm the new government. Although HDZ and MOST still have to come to an agreement on the most difficult issues, which ministries will be allocated to which party and who will be the ministers, it is almost certain that the HDZ-MOST government is a done deal. Of course, both sides will try to get what they can during the negotiations, but it is clear to them than only their government can be stable.
It is theoretically possible for HDZ to get 76 votes in Parliament even without MOST, but that majority would be very slim and unstable. Voters would certainly punish them for collapse of another government and third elections, and the two parties certainly cannot allow that. The first real test for their cooperation will be local elections in May 2017, where they will be opponents at the local level, while at the same time they will have to continue cooperation on the national level.
While it is clear that the agreement will be reached, it is still possible that it will not happen by 14 October. However, even a short delay would not have any serious repercussions. On the other hand, in an unlikely scenario that there is no agreement between the two parties, HDZ could start negotiations with HSS and HNS, who entered Parliament in a coalition with SDP.
