Croatian Chamber of Economy forecasts movements of petrol prices in 2017.
Price of a litre of Eurosuper 95 petrol in 2017 should not exceed 10.50 kuna, while diesel should be a little bit lower, as usual. The lower limit of the price range, due to expected trends, should not differ significantly from the current levels, according to estimates by the Croatian Chamber of Economy, reports Lider on January 22, 2017.
Currently, a litre of Eurosuper costs around 9.66 kuna, while a litre of Eurodiesel is 8.90 kuna. The petrol prices in Croatia are mostly affected by two elements – price of oil products on the Mediterranean market and the dollar exchange rate. Although people follow the movement of the price of crude oil as well, this can show us just the general trends in the market.
“It is certain that further increases of crude oil prices would increase the price of petroleum products. Since the majority of forecasts for this year expect a slight growth in the value of US dollar and a slight increase in prices of crude oil, with the peak in the third quarter of the year, we can expect that, towards the middle of the year, there will be the growth of prices of petroleum products. However, since the increase in the price of oil and the dollar ought to be moderate, we should not expect record prices at the Croatian petrol stations”, said Zvonimir Savić, director of Department for financial institutions, business information and economic analysis of the Croatian Chamber of Economy (HGK).
HGK’s analysts expect that the highest price of a barrel of oil this year will be recorded over the summer and that it will reach 70 dollars. As for the dollar exchange rate, it is not expected that the monthly average value of the dollar will exceed the value of the euro. Savić predicts that the highest monthly average ratio will be 0.98, and the annual average ratio about 0.96, which would represent a growth of about three percent compared to last year. At the same time, the price of crude oil should reach the level of 70 dollars, and then decrease towards the end of the year to about 60 dollars per barrel. Still, that would be significantly higher level compared to about 55 dollars from the end of last year.
Major “problem” for fuel prices in Croatia are high excise duties, which account for more than half of the retail price. Excise duties on petroleum products are an important source of budget revenues. “It should be noted that the prices of petroleum products in Croatia are below the European average, but that ratio is different if you take into account average wages. Therefore, we can conclude that excise duties are high and that their reduction would improve the standard of living of population and reduce the costs for businesses”, concluded Savić.
