ZAGREB, May 27, 2018 – Economic growth is expected to have picked up in the first quarter of this year from the previous quarter, mostly owing to strong household consumption, however, economic analysts warn that a weak industrial output and weak commodity exports continue to weigh on GDP growth.
The national statistical office, the DZS, will publish next week its preliminary GDP estimate for the first quarter of this year and eight macroeconomic analysts polled by Hina believe that GDP has grown by 2.3% on average compared to the same period of 2017. Their estimates range from 1.3% to 2.5%.
Q1 2018 will be the 15th consecutive quarter to see GDP grow and at a faster rate than in the previous quarter, when the economy grew 2% on the year, the lowest rate since mid-2015.
“Following poor performance in Q4 of 2017 of only 2%, currently available analyses of economic indicators point to a slightly stronger GDP growth rate,” said one of the polled analysts.
The estimates for Q1 are in line with expectations that economic growth throughout 2018 will be somewhat slower than in 2017, when the economy grew by 2.8%.
Eight analysts polled by Hina believe that the economy could grow 2.7% in 2018, while three months ago they expected an annual growth rate of 2.8%. Their latest estimates range from 2.3% to 3%.
The Croatian National Bank expected the economy to grow this year at a rate of 2.9%, which is the rate on which the government has based the budget for this year.
In its spring forecast, the European Commission has estimated that Croatia’s GDP will grow by 2.8% this year. The IMF expects the same growth rate while the World Bank expects the country’s economy to grow by 2.6%.
