If current trends were to continue, the future would not look terrible for Croatia.
What will the economy be like in Croatia and Europe in 2036? An attempt could be made to compare 2016 and 2036 if we go back 20 years and compare 1996 with the current year, reports Večernji List on July 25, 2016.
The average salary in Croatia in two decades, if it continues following the same path, could reach 2,020 euros. So, Croats would be making the average amount of money that Germans make today. An average salary in Croatia in 1996 was 290 euros, while currently it stands at 765 euros. We should therefore expect a wage growth of 164 percent. Although the cash will probably be gone by 2036, but the official currency will still be euro and Croatia will have been a part of the Eurozone for a decade already. However, even though Croats will be paid for their work more than double the amount they receive today, they will still be lagging behind Germany, which will remain the European economic leader.
In Germany, according to current trends, the salary in the next 20 years will increase from the present 2,000 euros to 2,860 euros. Based on statistics, the difference in the purchasing power of an average Croat and an average German should reduce significantly. Today, Croats earn 38 percent of the German average wage, and in 20 years – if we look at the previous 20 years for comparison – it could reach 70 percent of the average salary in Germany.
Croatian GDP has experienced an explosion in the past 20 years, nominally increasing 145 percent, from 29 to 49 billion dollars. If this trend is maintained, in 2036 Croatian GDP could be as high as 120 billion euros. GDP per capita in Croatia now is 12,000 dollars, and the projection for 2036 would be 33,000 dollars, which is similar to what the Japanese have today. Even if we add the inflation of about 30 percent in the next 20 years, we could easily say that Croats will live better than they live today.
Croatian living standards should actually double. However, not everything will be positive, because by 2036 many professions will disappear and robots will replace humans in simpler tasks in all industries, both in manufacturing and in the service sector, so the main issue is how many Croats will be employed at the time to enjoy these higher wages.
One other thing: in 1996, Croatia had only begun to recover from the war, so it is hard to expect that similar rate of growth could be achieved in the next 20 years.