Croatian GDP Fall in Third Quarter Smaller, Still in Double Digits

Lauren Simmonds

The Croatian GDP fall in the third quarter of an unprecedented and extremely tumultuous year dominated by a global pandemic and enormous economic downturn has been less than previously expected, but it unfortunately remains in double digits.

As Poslovni Dnevnik/Jadranka Dozan writes, after the second quarter of Croatian economic activity under the harmful influence of lockdown introduced to prevent the spread of the new coronavirus recorded a record 15.5 percent decline when compared to the same quarter last year, in the third quarter, the decline was mitigated but remained double-digits. This doesn’t come as much of a shock to anyone.

According to the first estimate of the Central Bureau of Statistics, during the three summer months, the Croatian GDP fall stood at 10 percent on an annual basis, while compared to the second quarter of this year, according to seasonal adjustments, economic activity increased by 6.9 percent.

When observed according to the components of Croatia’s GDP, the decline on an annual basis (i) in the third quarter was recorded by almost all major categories, with government consumption standing out as an exception.

Personal consumption, on the other hand, decreased by 7.5 percent, and as its share in domestic GDP is by far the largest and the contribution of this component to GDP growth / decline is usually crucial. However, the largest decrease in the quarter, which in Croatia is mostly marked by tourism, was expected to be achieved in exports and imports, and primarily in services. Exports of services fell by a concerning 45 percent (from -3% in goods, total exports weakened by 32.3 percent), while on the other hand, imports of services sank an equally worrying 33 percent when compared to the third quarter of last year, including goods (-9, 9%), with total imports falling 14.1 percent.

The so-called Gross fixed capital formation fell to 3 percent in the third quarter after falling by almost 15 percent in the second quarter.

Regarding the first estimate of quarterly GDP for the period July-September, the CBS points out that the circumstances related to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic “reflected the availability and reliability of data and information commonly used to estimate quarterly GDP.”

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