Addiko Economic Research: Sharp Rise in Croatia 4Q16 Industrial Production

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A strong end to 2016 for Croatian industrial production, reports Addiko Economic Research on January 30, 2017

“December’s seasonally adjusted industrial production sprinted 3.9% mom (prev. +2.7%), following already several months of decent monthly growth. Besides unusually higher number of working days, the strongest contribution came from non-durable goods (+6.5% mom), with all other segments outside the energy sector contributing positively as well (energy -1.6% mom). On the yoy level, industrial production soared 12.9% yoy, with 23.8% stronger energy generation in one of the coldest winters ever and very volatile refinery output, followed by 8.9% stronger non-durable goods being the main drivers. For the 4Q16, industrial production rose 7.2% yoy on average, thus well surpassing both 3.2% yoy increase in 3Q16 and 3.8% growth in 4Q15. Industrial production thus increased by 5.0% yoy for the FY16 on average. Meanwhile, manufacturing increased 7.1% yoy in 4Q16, which is consistent with an 1pp-alike positive contribution to the GVA formation in final quarter of the last year. The latter alongside the expected 3.5%-alike increase in household consumption and slightly negative net trade contribution implies 3.5% GDP growth in 4Q16, shaping the FY16 GDP growth at 3.0% on our estimates.”

For the full report and analysis, click here.


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