The Zagreb Institute of Economics expects further good news on GDP growth.
Analysts of the Zagreb Institute of Economics, based on movement of the CEIZ Index, expect that GDP continued with its recovery in the third quarter of the year as well. Their estimate is that it increased by 1.4 percent compared with the previous quarter, and by 2.5 percent year-on-year, reports Poslovni.hr on November 11, 2016.
CEIZ Index in September reached the value of 2.17 points. “This value is 0.27 points lower than in August, which is why we conclude that economic activity in September slowed down compared to August. At the same time, the average value of the CEIZ index in the third quarter of 2016 was 0.89 points less than in the third quarter of 2015, when a high GDP growth rate was recorded (2.8 percent year-on-year)”, said the Institute in a statement issued on Friday.
Analysts point out that the movement of the CEIZ index shows that economic activity in the third quarter of 2016 continued to recover. After the 0.9 percent growth in the first quarter, and the 0.7 percent growth in the second quarter, GDP in the third quarter increased by 1.4 percent compared to the previous quarter, estimated the Institute.
“We expect the annual rate of GDP growth in the third quarter to reach 2.5 percent. Furthermore, based on the possible error of the index estimate, we can conclude with a 95 percent certainty that the annual rate of GDP growth in the third quarter of 2016 will be between 2.2 and 2.7 percent”, said the analysts. Since the CEIZ index includes an indicator of tourism activity, its value for the third quarter takes into account excellent results achieved by Croatian tourism this year.
CEIZ index is a monthly composite indicator of business cycles developed at the Zagreb Institute of Economics, and its purpose is to provide timely information on the current state of the business cycle, which is why the value of the index changes simultaneously with changes in the business cycle. It is available one to three months before the publication of data on quarterly GDP.
