Zagreb Institute of Economics Forecasts GDP Growth of 2.9% in Q4

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ZAGREB, January 7, 2019 – Analysts of the Zagreb Institute of Economics (EIZ) expect, based on movements of the Coincident Economic Index (CEIZ) for October 2018, that the real GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year could be 2.9% compared to the same period of 2017, which is a slightly higher rate than in the preceding quarter, when real GDP grew 2.8%.

EIZ analysts note that the increase in the index in October is mostly owing to an increase in budget revenues from VAT, a greater volume of retail sales and more tourist overnight stays.

They also note that the increase in the value of CEIZ for October would have been higher had the volume of industrial production not dropped for the fourth consecutive month.

“Based on CEIZ trends, we expect the real GDP growth rate in Q4 of 2018 to be 2.9% as against the same period of 2017, which is a slightly higher annual GDP growth rate compared to Q3 2018, when GDP grew 2.8%,” the analysts said, noting that a more accurate estimate of real GDP growth for the last quarter of 2018 would be available once data for November and December were made available.

The Coincident Economic Index is a monthly composite business cycle indicator developed by the Institute of Economics. Its purpose is to provide timely information on the current business cycle condition.

More news on Croatia’s GDP growth can be found in our Business section.


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