IMF Revises Down Growth Forecast for Croatian Economy For 2021

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The Croatian economy contracted by 9.0% in 2020, the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, reaffirming its forecast from last autumn. The national economy is expected to grow by 5.0% in 2022 and thus exceed the pre-pandemic growth level.

The IMF included Croatia among the emerging European economies that are expected to record the highest growth rates this year and the next.

This year, only Turkey and Romania are projected to achieve higher growth rates, of 6%, and the Serbian economy is expected to grow at a rate of 5.0%. Next year, a higher rate is forecast only for the Hungarian economy, of 5.7%.

The economic activity of the emerging European economies should rise by 4.4% this year, half a percentage point higher than projected last autumn, while next year it is expected to slow down to 3.9%.

Projections of current account deficit and unemployment revised down

Croatia’s current account deficit is forecast at 2.3% of GDP this year, which is 0.8 percentage points lower than in the October report.

In 2020 the current account deficit was 3.5%, up by 0.3 percentage points from the autumn report, while in 2022 it is projected to drop to 1.6%.

The unemployment rate for this year is forecast at 9.4%, down from 10.3% projected last autumn. In 2020, the rate was 9.2% and in 2022 it should slide to 9.0%.

In 2021, consumer prices are expected to increase by 0.7%, compared to 0.8% projected in October. In 2020, the inflation rate was 0.3% as forecast in October, while in 2022 consumer prices are expected to pick up to 1.2%.

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