COVID-19 Predictions in Croatia by IHME: Over 1,000 Deaths by January

Daniela Rogulj



September 4, 2020 – The Independent Institute of Health Metrics and Assessments (IHME) in Washington has published the latest COVID-19 predictions in Croatia, which are quite grim.

Slobodna Dalmacija reports that the current death toll from COVID-19 in Croatia is 194, and IHME predicts that there will be 225 deaths in Croatia by October 1, 2002.

In compliance with the current epidemiological measures or if they are mitigated, they expect that by January 1, 2021, an average of 52 infected people will die daily in Croatia. By the same date, they predict that there will be 1,267 deaths in the country.

The model also envisages a situation in which everyone would adhere to the mandatory measure of wearing masks in public, and that in that case, there would be 230 deaths in Croatia by January 230.

They also calculated that we would need almost 2,000 hospital beds for the patients at the beginning of next year and as many as 493 ventilators.

The projections are made according to the latest data from the World Health Organization (WHO) and are subject to change depending on the epidemiological situation in the country.

Although this scenario seems very pessimistic, let us hope that IHME may have overestimated the death toll this time as it happened in their previous projection.

Namely, the institute has already corrected their projections for Croatia this summer.

Thus, in the first wave of the pandemic, they estimated that Croatia would have about 166 deaths, or about sixty more than actually died.

Shortly afterward, they corrected the projections and predicted that there could be 122 COVID-19 deaths by early October. The calculation model was changed after Nenad Bakic objected to the institute, and was supported by Nobel laureate Michael Levitt.

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