April the 21st, 2026 – Will Croatia find its place on Europe’s so-called rich list by 2030? The analysis involves 41 European countries, regardless of their EU membership status.
As Poslovni Dnevnik writes, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects strong growth in GDP per capita across Europe by 2030, but the ranking of the richest countries will not change dramatically, Euronews reports. While almost all European economies are set to grow, a crucial difference remains between the countries already at the top and those still trying to catch up with the European average.
The analysis spans 41 European countries, including EU members, candidate countries, EFTA countries and the United Kingdom, and looks at nominal GDP per capita and GDP per capita in purchasing power parity (PPP), which better reflects real living standards.
According to the IMF, Ireland is set to overtake Luxembourg when it comes solely to purchasing power parity by 2030.
However, there is an important caveat for Ireland – its GDP is strongly boosted by the presence of multinational companies, so official figures often don’t fully reflect the real strength of the domestic economy.
Among the five largest European economies, Germany will be the best performer of all, ranking 12th in Europe in terms of GDP per capita. This is followed by France in 15th place, the United Kingdom in 16th, Italy in 18th, while Spain would remain the lowest ranked among the large ones – in 22nd place.
This shows that the size of the economy does not necessarily mean a higher standard of living per capita for the populations of these nations.
The bottom of the list is still dominated by EU candidate countries. These include Ukraine, while Kosovo and Moldova are projected to remain among the weakest of all in terms of GDP per capita by 2030. Among the EU countries, Bulgaria is expected to remain at the lowest position, while Greece faces the biggest drop in the ranking – from 29th to a concerning 32nd place. On the other hand, Cyprus could make the biggest progress, jumping from 16th to 13th place.
According to these projections, Croatia will not be on Europe’s rich list of 41 countries by 2030, but it should continue to gradually close the gap with more developed EU nations. This means continued growth in standards, but still without a breakthrough to the very top of the European scale. Croatia remains in the group of medium-developed countries that are growing faster than the richer members, but starting from a significantly lower level.
If Luxembourg and Ireland are excluded, Denmark would be the leader among EU countries, with almost twice the GDP per capita of Greece, which remains at the very bottom of the more developed EU countries.
The main conclusion of the projections is that Europe will remain clearly divided by 2030. The north and west of the continent will retain their leading positions, while the east of Europe, despite its growth, will continue to lag behind – as has always been the case, perhaps with the exception of Poland.
For countries like Croatia, this means not being part of Europe’s rich list by 2030, but continuing to converge with the European average. It also implies the fact that catching up with the richest member states will take Croatia very many years.
