August the 23rd, 2026 – Croatia isn’t facing any sort of genuine fuel shortage, but experts are warning that prices will definitely rise.
Diesel shortages aren’t a realistic threat to Croatia, but prices will very likely rise again, warns energy expert Jasminko Umičević. He sees the problem in the lack of refining capacity in Europe and disruptions in supply. Poslovni reports that energy expert Jasminko Umičević spoke about the situation on the energy market, potential shortages and price movements for HRT.
Owing to disruptions on the global oil market and supply problems, concern is growing about the availability of diesel. Energy expert Jasminko Umičević believes there is no real danger of shortages in Croatia, although prices could remain high. “I don’t think there’s any real fear that shortages will occur. I believe high prices will continue, and that is the biggest problem. Regardless of the fact that the diesel market is very tight, especially across Europe. The main reason at this moment is the Strait of Hormuz and all the problems that stem from it,” says Umičević.
He also sees a problem in the structure of European refineries, which do not have sufficient capacity to produce diesel, while Europe has significantly higher consumption of this fuel than, for example, the United States. “European refineries are under-capacitated for sufficient diesel production, because the European market is a diesel market. Today we are in a situation where Europe has reduced its refining capacity by 30 percent over the last 20 years or so. Under the motto: better to import than to produce. And these are the results now,” he stresses. An additional problem for supply is the change in the sources from which Europe obtains all of its diesel.
“Previously the main source was Russia. After the sanctions everything shifted to Arab countries. Now we have a problem with the Arab countries. And recently there have been major problems, after the Ukrainian ones, with the new tactics of destroying refineries. That’s why there is no diesel. The market is tight, it’s always like that – when supply is lower, prices are higher,” he explains.
rijeka’s refinery still isn’t operating at full capacity
For Croatia in particular, the Rijeka refinery is particularly important, but its operation was briefly disrupted on Friday by a lightning strike on a substation. Umičević believes that if the problem is only with the substation, the fault could be fixed relatively quickly, but stresses that this is a situation that should not be ignored. He added that the Rijeka refinery is in any case not yet operating at full capacity because certain tests are still expected to be completed, and it should reach full capacity next year. “Especially now, the Rijeka refinery is not operating at full capacity, because the completion of some tests is still expected. Only next year will Rijeka operate at full capacity. But what is important right now is that there is production, so we aren’t dependent on imports,” he noted.
diesel prices will probably increase again
Diesel prices could rise again from next week, Umičević believes. Although the oil price has fallen in the meantime, the diesel price has remained high and continues to rise. “I think prices will rise again next week, for a very simple reason – the diesel price is rising, as is the petrol price. What is absurd, or a paradox, is that oil prices have not risen as much as the diesel price in particular,” says Umičević. “At the beginning of the Iran-US conflict in the Strait of Hormuz the oil price was around 71 dollars per barrel, and at its highest it reached 126 dollars. The diesel price then rose from around 750 to 1,300 dollars. After the situation calmed down, oil fell to around 90, and today it is around 94 dollars, while the diesel price has remained practically the same and continues to rise,” he states.
He nevertheless expects that any price increase will not be large, but notes that the final decision also depends on the Government.
“there will be enough gas, but the price of it is another thing”
As for gas, Umičević believes that the goal of filling Croatia’s Okoli storage facility to 85 percent by the 1st of October is realistic. “A month or a month and a half ago we were at around 51 percent full. Croatia has enough gas and a relatively good mix of sources – we have the LNG terminal, domestic production (which is smaller, admittedly), and diversified other sources. I think it is realistic for Croatia to reach 85 percent,” says Umičević.
He added that one of the problems is that the gas price on the futures market is lower than the current one, so storage users do not find it profitable to buy gas now at higher prices. “The key problem is that future gas prices are lower than current ones. That’s why it doesn’t pay for storage users to buy now at high prices and later sell at lower ones. However, the Government has taken certain decisions, and HEP has been given the task of filling the storage to 85 percent,” he said.
He believes there is currently no reason for concern about gas quantities, but stresses that the question of price is something else. “There will be enough gas, just as there will be enough diesel, the only question is at what price it will be sold at. Gas prices have seriously fluctuated, and after the initial summer price increase the situation has stabilised somewhat. When everything is averaged out, there should not be a significant increase in the gas price either, especially because the state already subsidises the price,” he concluded.
