August the 27th, 2026 – The Croatian economy will likely see growth of 1.8% in the second quarter of 2026, pointing to an economic slowdown.
The movement of the CEIZ index suggests that the Croatian economy will grow by 1.8 percent in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year, according to analysts at the Zagreb Economic Institute (EIZ). Poslovni reports that the CEIZ index fell by 1.24 index points back in June compared to the same month last year, while its value decreased by 0.15 index points compared to May.
In June this year, among the indicators tracking economic activity, tourism actually underperformed the most, with the number of tourist arrivals lower than in May. On the other hand, industrial production and retail trade turnover rose, and the state collected more VAT revenue. The number of tourist arrivals was also the only component of the CEIZ index that recorded a decline in June compared to the same month last year.
“The described movement of the index suggests that economic activity in the second quarter of 2026 is slightly slowing compared to the previous quarter. Despite this, we estimate that the Croatian economy will grow by 1.8 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, with a positive quarter-on-quarter rate of change,” the EIZ analysts state.
The Institute emphasised that the estimate based on the CEIZ index is not a precise forecast of GDP growth, but rather serves as a kind of ‘compass’ for monitoring current economic activity. The Croatian economy is therefore still growing, but at a somewhat slower pace than at the beginning of the year. CEIZ data so far doesn’t point to a turnaround, but rather to a gradual slowdown in economic activity.
