It has been a tumultuous year so far, and it seems that the brakes of the long summer break are about to come off…
As Tportal reports on the 26th of August, 2017, Prime Minister Andrej Plenković, his Ministers, as well as his coalition partners from HNS have a lot of work in store for them following their long summer break.
In the name of political stability, quite a bit was shoved under the rug this year. Tportal brings an analysis of the most important topics, events and issues that are believed to be the issues which will mark the political Autumn of 2017, but also determine the fate of the HDZ and HNS coalition.
Last Thursday, the Government held its first session after a summer break. This Autumn, the Prime Minister and his Ministers will have to deal with the increasingly agonising Agrokor crisis, but also with the fate of the controversial property tax and education – two reforms Plenković put on hold. The Government will also have to finally deal with the controversial ”Za Dom Spremni” salute. All of this, particularly with a few highly sensitive issues, places a true test on the strength of the coalition of HDZ and HNS. Will it endure it? Who knows.
1) Agrokor
Plenković’s government, as well as the whole country, are sitting right on top of a volcano that continues to smoke – Ivica Todorić’s Agrokor. So far, the Agrokor crisis is being controlled in such a way that every little bit causes earthquakes of a slightly lower magnitude, but the issue is still very much ongoing and widely felt. The fate of Agrokor, as well as Ivica Todorić, will likely become much clearer this Autumn. Government Commissioner Ante Ramljak announced that his work would be completed by the auditors by mid-September. The possibility of finding financial counterfeiting followed by the subsequent explosion of this proverbial volcano is a real one.
2) Curricular reform
Andrej Plenković’s Government is already late with the promised education reforms. Although Plenković is constantly repeating the words that ”reforms are going forth”, the fact of the matter is that there are no such thing as reforms, at least not currently. On one side we have the Minister of Science and Education, Blaženka Divjak, and on the other, the head of the special commission for the implementation of the education strategy, Dijana Vican. The winner of this war will determine the direction of any future education reforms. Until the war is over, reforms cannot begin. Only Plenković can bring an end to it.
3) Property tax
Perhaps the most controversial ”hot topic” of the moment is the threat of property tax, which has already been delayed by Plenković in an apparent attempt to calm the situation, with prominent political figures such as Finance Minister Zdravko Maric claiming that he ”would be the first to vote against any new law” and that the property tax law is ”not a new one”. A scenario which would involve Marić resigning is not an impossible one, but it would mean yet another serious crisis in the Government, the second this year. Everything is in the hands of Prime Minister Andrej Plenković. Zdravko Marić announced a new offensive in Autumn, which he hopes will provide a better explanation as to why the tax is a ”good” thing.
4) The political destiny of HNS
In addition to the struggle over curricular reform and the fate of the HOS plaque at Jasenovac, relations in the ruling coalition, as well as the perspective of the Government of Andrej Plenković, will be determined by other events. The HDZ-HNS coalition’s future will be of great importance and it will be interesting to see how the relationship manages to withstand the issues the Government is currently faced with, particularly in regard to topics which are of particular sensitivty to HNS, such as the HOS plaque at the site of the former WW2 camp, Jasenovac.
5) The HOS memorial at Jasenovac
Andrej Plenković has announced that he will finally resolve this issue, which has been a topic of debate from all sides of the political spectrum for a while now. Last Wednesday, Plenković said that the Government is waiting for a response from the Ministry of Administration. In June, the media reported that Lovro Kušcević had prepared the Government’s response to the SDP, who are staunchly against the HOS plaque, stating that there was no legal ground to remove it from Jasenovac. Although the story was quickly denied by the Government, the impression that it was done solely to keep the peace was widely felt. The issue is of a deeper significance than it may appear, and, realistically speaking, the real political problem for Plenković is not HNS’s political and/or ideological standpoint, but what HDZ voters think and feel about a plaque with ”Za Dom Spremni” on it being at the location of Jasenovac. Justice Minister Dražen Bošnjaković said in an interview with Vecernji List that there was no reason within the law to remove anything from Jasenovac, and that the problem will only be solved next year after the drafting of a new law.
6) Union threats
The chiefs of the public service unions threatened the Government if they failed to meet their demands to pay teachers, professors, scientists, health workers, and social workers more. The public sector employee base salary has not risen since 2008 when crisis hit Croatia. The country emerged from the recession at the end of 2015, and since then, the unions are seeking a six percent rebate. The union war drums are louder, preparations for a general strike are in full swing and the Government could be pushed into a very tight corner indeed.
7) INA
INA and its workers have been held as the political hostages of unresolved ownership relations between the Croatian state and Hungarian MOL for years. The former ruling coalition of HDZ and MOST, whose Prime Minister was Tihomir Orešković, broke down because of disagreements with Croatia’s biggest oil company. Now there is a consensus that the only solution is to repurchase shares from Hungary, returning it to a state-owned company and finding a new strategic partner. The Government made the first step in that direction by initiating the selection procedure for an adviser for that operation. Plenković’s Government has an extremely long and bumpy road ahead of it, a road along which many surprises are possible.
Excerpts taken and translated from tportal.hr
