He was pretty accurate with his pre-election analysis in an interview with Total Croatia News. RTL’s political analyst Kresimir Macan on the likely scenarios after the recent inconclusive election results following an RTL poll.
The closest election results in Croatia’s history have generated a very uncertain situation: both major coalitions need a significant number of additional seats for a clear majority, and the new MOST party is the key for forming the new government, reports RTL on November 13, 2015.
“MOST is the only actor who controls its own fate and the fate of the future government, they have all the cards. They were given the responsibility, given the opportunity and the only thing they can do is to take responsibility, name the prime minister-designate and start the reforms. If they do not do it, then they will risk it all”, RTL’s election analyst Krešimir Macan said.
RTL conducted a poll about voter preferences after the elections. Asked who should form a coalition with MOST, 28.5 percent of respondents said MOST should enter a coalition with the parties gathered around SDP. Cooperation with the Patriot Coalition had the support of 22 percent of voters, while 17 percent wanted new elections to be held.
A smaller percentage of respondents believe in the formation of a minority government. Analysts agree that such a solution would not be particularly good. “If they start assembling the majority by collecting individual members of parliament, the government would be very weak. It would certainly not be a government which could make strong reforms, but only a government that could lead to early elections”, Macan said.
A majority of people surveyed in the RTL poll believe that is precisely what will happen: almost a quarter of the population expects new elections, 20 percent believe in the coalition between MOST and SDP, while 17 percent expect a coalition between MOST and HDZ.
The vast majority of citizens do not believe in a possible minority government, or a grand coalition of SDP and HDZ. “If there are new elections, there will be a punishment for those who are responsible”, Macan said.
One of possibilities is that, even if the government is somehow formed, MOST would just stay in the Parliament and not participate in the government itself. “That is what Dražen Budiša did in 2000: he won power, decided he will not enter the government, criticized the same government from the parliament, and eventually lost everything”, Macan said.
In short: all scenarios are possible, but we will have to wait for the final outcome. In 2007, when situation was less murky, Ivo Sanader needed three weeks to form a new government.
