Two main political parties are in a race against time and each other to find 76 MPs willing to support their plans.
Political parties have until 17 June to solve four issues: the recall of Prime Minister Tihomir Orešković, the recall of First Deputy Prime Minister and HDZ president Tomislav Karamarko, the dissolution of Parliament, and possible ruling coalition reshuffle. The answers to these questions will either lead us to new election, to the new government led by HDZ or to the survival of the current government through a new agreement between HDZ and MOST, reports Večernji List on June 11, 2016.
Most parties and MPs have stated more or less clearly how they plan to vote on various motions. It is obvious that HDZ and its present and possible future partners do not want new elections because they fear the possible return of SDP and Zoran Milanović to power.
SDP’s initiative for the dissolution of Parliament currently does not have the majority. Such solution would be supported at the moment by 62 opposition MPs, which hope they might be joined by other MPs, including 12 MOST’s MPs. However, as long as MOST sees the possibility for the survival of the current government, they will not vote for the dissolution of Parliament.
As for the motion of no confidence against Prime Minister Orešković, currently we know that 73 MPs are more or less certain to vote for the motion, 13 are against, while four are undeclared. If they were to come to the conclusion that HDZ could succeed in the subsequent reshuffle, 61 opposition MPs could actually vote in favour of Orešković, which would provoke a vote on the motion of no confidence against Karamarko. As far as Karamarko’s recall is concerned, 82 MPs have said they would vote in favour.
The key tactical question for the opposition is whether to support Orešković’s recall or not. Naturally, they do not support the current government so it would be expected for them to vote against Orešković, particularly if they conclude that HDZ does not stand a chance to find a new majority in Parliament and form a new government without MOST.
The structure of any reshuffled government would be much more complex, more fragile and even less efficient (if that is even possible) than the current government, even if HDZ were to manage to satisfy the interests of all MPs who would support such a solution. HDZ has 49 MPs of its own, and there are 26 additional MPs who might under certain conditions support such a government. The majority of MPs have publicly said they are more or less firmly against any reshuffle. So, even if HDZ were to gather 75 MPs, it would still need to find at least one more MP among those who have said they would not take part in the reshuffle.
It is still possible for HDZ to change its mind and decide to abandon its motion of no confidence against Orešković. The final deadline is 17 June, when vote on Karamarko’s dismissal must take place at the latest, since the potential vote on the Prime Minister would probably have to take place prior to that. However, after HDZ on Friday repeated the demand for Orešković to resign and even named current Finance Minister Zdravko Marić as its candidate for Prime Minister-designate, it is becoming increasingly hard to see how the current government between HDZ and MOST with Orešković as the Prime Minister could survive.
