The poll conducted in the fourth parliamentary constituency is the first in a series which will be published covering all ten constituencies.
Promocija Plus agency has started conducting a series of polls for RTL and Jutranji List in parliamentary constituencies whose results will be published in the next three weeks. The first results were published on Sunday evening for the fourth parliamentary constituency, report RTL and Jutarnji List on May 23, 2016.
The fourth constituency includes parts of Slavonia (Virovitica-Podravina County and Osijek-Baranja County).
As much as 63 percent of respondents believe that Croatia should have early parliamentary elections, while 24.3 percent of those surveyed are against. Asked when they would like for the elections to be held, 45 percent say as soon as possible, while a total of 95 percent of respondents want the election to be held this year. Unsurprisingly, SDP’s voters are the most eager to have new elections (96.5 percent), while HDZ’s voters do not show the same level of enthusiasm (33.8 percent).
Among those certain and likely to vote, the results are as follow: HDZ (30.4 percent), SDP (27.7 percent), HDSSB (9.7 percent), Živi Zid (9.3 percent) and MOST (5.6 percent). Other parties are below the 5-percent electoral threshold needed to enter Parliament.
When the percentages are converted into seats in Parliament, HDZ would win 6 seats, SDP 5, while HDSSB, Živi Zid and MOST would win one seat each. Croatian Labour Party, HNS and HSP-AS, which entered Parliament in November as part of SDP’s and HDZ’s coalitions, would now be left without a seat if they were to run independently of other parties.
Compared to results in November, HDZ would get one seat more, while SDP would get two seats more. MOST would receive the same number of seats, although its vote share has been almost halved. HDSSB would lose one seat, while Živi Zid would gain one seat.
Among disappointed former MOST voters, most would now vote for Živi Zid and SDP.
Commenting on the results for the fourth constituency, Nenad Zakošek, a professor at the Faculty of Political Science, says that the most interesting finding is that MOST has almost halved its support compared to elections in November (from 10.7 percent to 5.6 percent). Zakošek says that disappointed MOST voters are looking for other options, and finding them mostly with Živi Zid and SDP, which shows that MOST earlier had greater support from the leftwing voters than the rightwing ones.
“These voters have not become passive, but are obviously looking for other options. Most of them went to Živi Zid. MOST’s electorate was markedly younger than the electorate of both SDP and HDZ, and so now they are turning to Živi Zid”, says Zakošek.
Another significant data point is a further decline of HDSSB in this constituency. Zakošek believes that these voters may be dissatisfied with the party because of the scandals that have been linked with some of their most prominent members. “Some of the voters also thought that HDSSB may provide some benefits to Slavonia. The party spoke on behalf of the impoverished Slavonia, but now we can see that this orientation is weakening”, explains Zakošek.
When it comes to HDZ and SDP, the poll shows a decline in the popularity of the largest right-wing party and a good result for SDP. HDZ is very close to losing one of their seats to HDSSB, while SDP is now winning five seats, the same number it won with the whole Croatia Is Growing coalition.
Zakošek believes this is an impact of the Karamarko case and allegations concerning his wife’s business dealings. “This is now a decline of HDZ, because in earlier polls we saw that their rating remained unchanged, despite the weakness of the government”, concludes Zakošek.
The results of the poll for the third parliamentary constituency will be published on Tuesday.
