June 28, 2020 – The full results of one of the biggest polls conducted in Croatia before the parliamentary elections, which are to be held on July 5th, have just been published.
The poll was organized by the Croatian Radiotelevision, and performed by the Promocija plus agency, between 14th and 22nd of June, with the sample size of 6000 total participants. The statistical error for each constituency (there are 10 geographical constituencies in Croatia, the 11th constituency is for the votes by the Croatian diaspora and the 12th is for minorities living in Croatia) is not more than +/- 4%.
I. constituency (Zagreb Centre)
Restart Coalition (SDP+partners) wins 29.2% of the votes, HDZ+HSLS get 19.7%, Miroslav Škoro’s Homeland Movement (Domovinski Pokret) get 10.4%, and Tomislav Tomašević from the Možemo! platform gets 9.1% of the votes. Most Party is just over the threshold for a seat, with 6.3%, and Dalija Orešković’s party (Stranka s imenom i prezimenom) is just below, at 3.9%. Zagreb Mayor and his party Milan Bandić are around 2%.
As far as the seats go, the poll is certain it can predict the 12 seats (Restart – 5, HDZ – 4, Škoro – 2, Možemo 1). The two seats are up for grabs, with Most and Restart having the highest chances of winning them.
II. constituency (Zagreb East, Central Croatia)
Restart Coalition wins 31% of the votes, HDZ+HSLS gets 28%, Miroslav Škoro gets 11.3%. Most is below the threshold at 4.6%, as well as Milan Bandić Party with 3.6%
In the II. constituency, the poll suggests 13 certain seats (Restart – 6, HDZ – 5, Škoro – 2), while the highest chance of winning the final seat is given to Most.
III. constituency (Northern Croatia)
Restart Coalition wins 41.8% of the polled votes, HDZ gets 22.4%. Below the threshold currently are Domovinski Pokret, HNS and Radimir Čačić’s Reformisti.
12 certain seats go to SDP and HDZ (8:4). The two remaining votes are likeliest to go to Restart and Domovinski Pokret.
IV. constituency (Northern part of Slavonia)
HDZ has 32.4% of support, Miroslav Škoro’s Domovinski Pokret has 22.2%, Restart Coalition is at 18.7%.
Out of 13 certain seats, 6 go to HDZ, Domovinski Pokret gets 4, Restart Coalition gets 3. The last seat will probably go to either HDZ or Restart Coalition, with HDZ having better chances to get it.
V. constituency (Southern part of Slavonia)
HDZ has 41.1% support, Restart Coalition gets 20.8%, and Miroslav Škoro’s coalition gets 16.8%. Most is currently at 4.4% and is close to getting a seat.
Again, 13 seats are certain: 7 for HDZ, 3 for Restart Coalition and 3 for Miroslav Škoro. The last seat will most likely go to Restart Coalition.
VI. constituency (Zagreb South, Central Croatia)
Restart Coalition gets 29.4%, HDZ gets 24.4%. Škoro’s Coalition gets 11.7%, and Most is at 5.7%. Možemo! platform is close to the threshold at 4.4%.
12 seats are certain, with 5 going to Restart, 4 to HDZ, 2 to Domovinski pokret and one to Most. Two remaining seats will probably go to Restart and HDZ.
VII. constituency (Zagreb South-West, Western Croatia)
Restart Coalition gets 28.6%, HDZ 26.4%, and Škoro gets 11%. Možemo! platform is close to the threshold, 4.6%.
12 certain seats will be distributed between Restart and HDZ (5 each) and Škoro (2). Two remaining seats will probably go to Restart and Možemo!
VIII. constituency (Istria, Nothern Islands)
Restart Coalition gets 47.2% of the votes, and HDZ gets 19.7%, and those are the only two slates certain to be over the threshold. Živi Zid, Možemo! and Domovinski Pokret are at just over 4% support, so close to a seat.
The 12 certain seats go to Restart and HDZ (9:3), with the other mentioned options close to catching a seat, but the highest chances are they will go to Restart and HDZ.
IX. constituency (Lika, Northern Dalmatia)
HDZ gets 37.1% of the votes, Restart gets 20.2%, Miroslav Škoro gets 10.2%, Most 9.6% and Stipe Petrina Independent List is also over the threshold at 6.1%.
13 certain seats go to HDZ (7), Restart (3), Domovinski pokret (1) and Stipe Petrina (1). The final seat will probably go to Restart Coalition.
X. constituency (Southern Dalmatia)
33% of the votes go to HDZ, 26.2% are for Restart, Miroslav Škoro gets 8.5% and Most gets 8.3%.
Out of the 13 certain seats, HDZ gets 6, Restart gets 5, and Škoro and Most get one each. The final seat will probably go to HDZ.
HRejting poll is certain about the 125 seats in the Croatian parliament:
Restart – 52
HDZ – 51
Domovinski Pokret – 17
Most – 3
Možemo! – 1
Stipe Petrina – 1
If we added the remaining 15 to those slates which are given the highest probabilities of winning them, the situation would be like this:
Restart – 60
HDZ – 54
Domovinski Pokret – 18
Most – 5
Možemo! – 2
Stipe Petrina – 1
One thing to keep in mind while considering these results is the timeframe during which the poll was conducted (June 14 – 22), so a large uncertainty still remains regarding how much the events of this previous week might’ve influenced the voters. And there’s one whole week before the parliamentary elections ahead of us as well.
Read more about Croatian politics and the 2020 parliamentary elections in Croatia here.