According to the Jutarnji List daily of Tuesday, ENTSOG’s estimate is contrary to claims by the Croatian government which has been trying to assure the public that Croatia enjoys a high level of security against possible disruptions in the delivery of Russian gas.
In a scenario of a full Russian supply disruption, most European countries will not be able to reach the storage level target of more than 80%, with significant departures from the target among them, ENTSOG says, noting that its analysis shows import capacity limitations in Central Eastern Europe as well as infrastructure capacity limitations in the North-West and in the South of Europe. Those factors limit possibilities to alleviate gas shortages, ENTSOG says in a report on possible consequences of a Russian embargo on gas exports to the EU.
The same source says that Great Britain, Belgium, France, Spain and Portugal will have the least difficulty filling their gas storages if Russia cuts off gas supply, and that in case of such a scenario those countries will fill between 90 and 100% of their gas storage capacity.
Germany, the Netherlands and Italy are estimated to fill 30-60% of their storage facilities, ENTSOG says, warning that the three countries hold 50% of the EU’s gas storage capacity.
Croatia, Lithuania, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Austria, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Romania are in the third group of EU countries that will have most difficulty weathering a Russian gas export embargo, and they are likely to fill a maximum 35% of their natural gas storage capacity.
ENTSOG does not give an estimate for Latvia, Finland and Estonia but rather an assessment saying that in the event of a Russian gas export ban, those countries will be faced with a major rise in demand for gas from Central and Southeastern European countries during the summer months.
ENTSOG recalls that Central and Southeast European countries meet their gas demand during the summer with gas from Latvia, Finland and Estonia, while buying Russian gas ahead of the heating season, says Jutarnji List.