The Institute of Economics in Zagreb expects slower GDP growth in third quarter.
The value of CEIZ Index in the third quarter was slightly lower compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slowdown in economic activities, announced on Friday the Institute of Economics in Zagreb, estimating that the rate of real GDP growth in the third quarter, compared to the same period last year, stood at 2.2 percent, which is slightly slower growth than in the first half of the year, reports seebiz.eu on September 9, 2016.
“Since March this year, the CEIZ Index has recorded high positive rates which have been slightly decreasing from month to month. In July, the first month of the third quarter, the CEIZ Index registered the value of two index points, which is a decrease of 0.7 index points compared to the previous month and of 1.1 points compared to the same period last year. The value of the Index in the third quarter is therefore slightly lower than in the previous quarter, indicating a slowdown of business activities in the third quarter”, announced the Institute of Economics.
However, measured on an annual basis, the average value of a CEIZ Index still indicates acceleration of economic activities. Therefore, based on the movement of CEIZ Index, the Institute of Economics expects that the rate of growth of real GDP in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the same period of last year could be 2.2 percent, which is slightly slower growth than in the first half of the year. The real GDP growth stood at 2.7 percent in the first quarter and 2.8 percent in the second.
The CEIZ Index is a monthly composite indicator of business cycle developed by the Institute of Economics in Zagreb, and its purpose is to provide timely information on the current state of the business cycle. It is an indicator of business cycle that contains information that should otherwise be collected by analyzing a large number of different economic data series. In contrast to quarterly GDP data, it provides a monthly assessment of the state of the economy, thus giving more accurate information about changes that take place during a shorter period of time. It is available one to three months before the publication of data on quarterly GDP, which enables economic policy-makers and the public to timely monitor economic developments.
