Economic growth continues to slow down.
Based on the CEIZ index movement in March and in the first three months of the year, analysts from the Zagreb Economic Institute (EIZ) estimate that real annual growth rate of GDP could amount to 2.3 percent in the first quarter, while seasonally adjusted data show that, compared to the previous quarter, the GDP rose by 0.6 percent, reports the Zagreb Economic Institute on May 11, 2018.
“In March 2018, the CEIZ index recorded a decrease of 0.08 points compared to February. The index value in March was the lowest value recorded since December 2014, when the economy was just emerging from a long recession,” announced the EIZ on Friday.
In the first quarter of this year, the CEIZ index recorded the highest value in January, while in February and March there was a decline in value, “which indicates that in the first quarter the economic activity demonstrated a trend towards further slowdown, which additionally intensified towards the end of the quarter.”
In March, the index recorded a growth in the retail trade segment and the number of tourist arrivals, while a fall was recorded in industrial production and budgetary revenues from value-added tax, which is why the CEIZ index declined in total value, the EIZ analysts pointed out.
Based on the trend of the CEIZ index movement, they expect that the annual real GDP growth rate in the first quarter of this year could amount to 2.3 percent, which would be slightly better than the GDP growth rate of 2 percent achieved in the last quarter of 2017. However, at the same time, it would be significantly weaker than the annual GDP growth rates achieved in the first three quarters of 2017.
Seasonally adjusted data suggest that, in the first three months of 2018, compared to the previous quarter, GDP grew by 0.6 percent.
The CEIZ index is a coincidental economic indicator, a complex monthly business cycle indicator developed by the EIZ with the purpose of providing timely information on the current business cycle, which is why the value of the CEIZ index changes simultaneously with changes in the business cycle. The index is an indicator that contains information that would otherwise have to be collected by analyzing a large number of different economic series. Unlike the quarterly GDP data, the CEIZ index gives a monthly estimate of the state of the economy, thus providing more accurate information on changes which take place within a shorter period of time. The CEIZ index is available one to three months before the publication of official data on quarterly GDP, so economic policymakers and the public are able to monitor economic developments in a timely manner.
