April 8, 2020 – According to projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, Croatia is set to reach its peak on April 20.
Index.hr reports that during the worst week of April 18-25, an average of seven citizens could die every day, according to these projections. By August 4, there will be 166 victims of the pandemic.
The death toll depends on the capacity of the health systems
The University of Washington experts say the death toll depends on the capacity of health systems. In that sense, Croatia is doing well. According to the projected pandemic, Croatian patients should occupy 255 hospital beds at the height of the infection, out of the six and a half thousand in our health care system. A similar situation is with beds in intensive care units with a capacity of 216. And according to IHME’s prediction, at the height of the crisis in Croatia, 61 patients will be in intensive care.
According to the most pessimistic estimates, more than 20 patients will die in the country during the peak period
These estimates represent the mean, but in the worst-case scenario predicted by IHME in Croatia, more than 20 patients would die daily during the peak of the pandemic. Even in such a black scenario, Croatia would have enough beds and ventilators, thus positioning Croatia better than many more developed and wealthier countries.
Estimates for some developed countries are not optimistic.
Otherwise, one of the worst estimates is for the UK, where more than 100,000 beds will be needed at worst times, with fewer than 18,000 available. Therefore, more than 66,000 people are expected to die there in August. The United States will miss 36,654 beds and the peak of the crisis will come on April 15, when more than 3,000 will die.
There should be just over 150,000 deaths across Europe, with 81,766 lives lost in the United States.
You can see the COVID-19 projections in Croatia HERE
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