Croatian Mathematician Toni Milun Explains Health System Limitations

Lauren Simmonds

As Poslovni Dnevnik writes on the 27th of March, 2020, Croatian mathematician Toni Milun has explained just how many people ”can” get coronavirus, and what the Croatian health system’s limits are.

He has emphasised the point that we are the most important part of this story. We have to stick to these measures and not to go outside, and we need to listen only to expert advice and stay at home.

The spread of coronavirus is currently not linear, but exponential. This, in turn, means that it takes the virus about two days to double the number of infections in the world and the number then increases more and more, Toni Milun explained pictorially, on one piece of paper.

We’re the most important part of the story. We must adhere to [the measures in place] and not to go outside, we need to listen to the advice of experts and stay home,” 24sata writes.

”Yes, every day which passes, we’re approaching the peak, we have more and more patients. And when we do get some growth, it’ll stay like that for a while. When we get to the number of 150 infected people a day, it will be like that for a few days, and then the numbers will start to go down. Of course, if we’re careful and listen to the instructions we’re given and we continue to not go out,” he explained.

Our healthcare system has certain limits.

”The worst case scenario would be to skip over our own capacities. We have about 800 respirators in Croatia. If, for example, 16,000 people became ill and about five percent of them needed respiratory assistance in treatment, we’d be on the brink and our system wouldn’t be able to handle that,” Toni Milun said, once again urging everyone to take responsibility in this situation in order for this scenario to not come to pass at all.

Follow our dedicated section for rolling information and updates in English about coronavirus in Croatia.


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