ZAGREB, October 20, 2019 – Based on the movements of its CEIZ index, the Institute of Economics, Zagreb (EIZ) expects Croatia’s real GDP to rise by 2.4% in the third quarter of 2019 compared with the same quarter of 2018 and by 0.6% compared with the second quarter of 2019.
After somewhat lower values in June and July this year, the CEIZ index improved in August, but failed to reach considerably higher values recorded in January and May.
The index has been falling year on year since January 2019. In the first two quarters of this year its decline even accelerated compared with the previous three months, averaging minus 1.6 points.
Seasonally adjusted data show that three of four CEIZ index components increased in relation to July, while central government budget VAT revenues declined by 14.2%. Year on year, the largest increase was recorded for tourist arrivals, which went up by 7.8% compared with August 2018.
Compared with the second quarter of this year, the CEIZ cumulatively increased by 0.6 points in July and August. The average value of the index in these two months was 1.4 points lower than the average index value in the third quarter of 2018.
“Such dynamics of the CEIZ index suggest that economic activity in the third quarter of this year rose at a slower rate than at the same time last year, but also that it picked up slightly in relation to the previous three months. Based on CEIZ index movements, we expect the annual real GDP growth rate to reach 2.4% in the third quarter of 2019, which is equal to the official growth rate in the second quarter of this year. Seasonally adjusted data indicate that GDP in the third quarter of 2019 rose by 0.6% quarter on quarter,” EIZ said.
More news about GDP growth can be found in the Business section.
