ZAGREB, March 20, 2020 – Croatia will face a steep fall in GDP this year, of almost 5% on the year, while seasonality in tourism demand and weak industry will make recovery slower in comparison with other countries, Raiffeisenbank Austria analysts have said.
The current situation and coronavirus spread will have a significant impact on the Croatian economy, especially due to its strong dependence on tourism, according to a special publication, “Covid-19”, published by RBA on Friday.
It is already quite certain that there will be no preseason, and the impact of the epidemic on the peak tourist season is expected to increase. The consequence will be a fall in overnight stays and loss of tourism revenue, RBA said.
The bank’s analysts reiterate that at least a fifth of overnight stays and tourism revenue in Croatia can be matched to Q2, while the main tourist season, which falls in Q3, accounts for 70% of overnight stays and revenue.
Among the sectors at risk, RBA analysts include the service sector, especially transport and all other services that depend on tourism: accommodation, food and beverage services, recreation and entertainment and travel services. They add that the manufacturing industry – chemical, paper, textile, lumber etc. – will most certainly experience a decrease in supply and demand since the main Croatian export markets are EU countries, especially Italy and Germany, so a slump in goods export is inevitable in Q2.
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