The Government is keen on early elections.
In early September, SDP has conducted an extensive public opinion research which has shown that the coalition led by SDP could receive two percent more votes than the Patriotic Coalition led by HDZ. According to leading members of SDP, the results of the survey, whose details have been reported only to Zoran Milanović and his closest associates, have significantly influenced the decision of the ruling coalition that parliamentary elections should be held as early as November, reports Jutarnji List on September 22, 2015.
According to the Jutarnji List sources, the research showed two very positive results in favour of the ruling coalition. SDP and its allies win more votes and more seats in parliament than HDZ and the Patriotic Coalition, while Zoran Milanović has a substantial lead over his main prime ministerial rival Tomislav Karamarko.
The left coalition gets about 32 percent of the votes, and HDZ’s coalition about 30 percent. The results show that neither left nor right coalition will get more than half the seats, which would enable them to rule alone. Therefore, the final decision on the next government could be made by smaller parties which could go over the electoral threshold in certain constituencies, such as ORaH, Živi Zid, IDS, HDSSB and Reformists. Although it is not clear how many seats these parties could win, it seems that smaller parties could have great importance if they do not lose some of their votes in the next two months, since most of them are just slightly above five percent, which is the threshold for entry to parliament.
Equally important is to note whom voters perceive as a more competent potential prime minister. Milanović has been chosen by 48 percent of the voters, while Karamarko’s support is at 28 percent. At the same time, 23 percent of voters say that neither is capable of being prime minister. These results are interesting because they show that Milanović is significantly more popular than his coalition, while Karamarko has less support than the Patriotic Coalition he leads.
It is understandable that SDP leadership is pleased with the results and claim that this is an unstoppable trend. “Frankly speaking, I see no way how HDZ could win. We completely dominate in almost all issues and demonstrate how a responsible state should act, while Karamarko and his team just criticize anything and everything. We may not win 76 seats in parliament, but we will have a relative majority”, says a member of the SDP leadership.