August the 19th, 2026 – Extreme weather is damaging Croatian tourism and agriculture, with temperatures above 30 degrees lasting more than a month, the economic cost amounts to around one percent of GDP.
Extreme heat is becoming an increasingly significant economic risk, and Croatia could be among the more exposed European countries due to the structure of its economy. In addition to the usual summer heat, summer is the season in which temperatures are rising the fastest, the State Hydrometeorological Institute (DHMZ) revealed. Poslovni reports that from 1961 to 2020, the average summer temperature increased by between 0.3 and 0.6°C per decade, depending on the area.
In the same period, a significant increase was recorded in the number of warm days – days with a maximum daily temperature of at least 25°C – locally by up to 8.3 days per decade. “Climate change therefore does not simply mean less or more rain, but changes the timing, frequency and intensity of precipitation, and with it the associated risks,” DHMZ said. According to empirical findings for 35 countries, every additional degree above 30°C reduces labour productivity by around three percent.
risks to businesses
For companies, extreme weather conditions are no longer just a matter of meteorology or public health, but an increasingly concrete business risk. Extreme heat for some employers means fewer working hours, lower productivity, higher costs, pressure on agricultural yields and growing costs of adapting to new weather conditions. Heat thus becomes a risk that, unlike damage after a flood or storm, is often not immediately visible.
“Extreme heat creates significant business costs for European companies. According to relevant analyses, the share of lost working hours due to heat stress could rise from 1.4 percent in 1995 to 2.2–2.5 percent by 2030. According to empirical findings for 35 countries, every additional degree above 30°C reduces labour productivity by around three percent (1.3 dollars in purchasing power parity per hour of work). Among European economies, the largest drop in productivity is estimated for France, Italy and Slovenia, and Croatia does not deviate much from that trio.
In the short term, the largest part of the cost is borne by companies because wages do not decrease despite the drop in productivity, which reduces profit margins. An additional negative effect comes from warmer nights, which in 2024 caused a record 8.7 percent more lost sleep, further worsening the productivity of office workers as well,” said Hrvoje Stojić, chief economist at the Croatian Employers’ Association (HUP).
Stojić points out that in general the estimates hold that in the case of 30 or more days with temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius, the economic cost amounts to around one percent of GDP.
“What is particularly worrying is the fact that climate risks are no longer the exception, which is why they are increasingly becoming part of regular business planning. Every day of production interruption, logistics disruption or reduced employee productivity due to extreme conditions represents a direct financial cost,” said Marija Šćulac, vice-president of the Croatian Chamber of Economy (HGK). “Croatia is among the countries that are particularly exposed to climate risks, especially due to the size of its economy and the structure of the economy.
According to World Bank estimates from 2025, Croatia will need additional investments amounting to around 1.1 percent of GDP annually for successful adaptation to climate change and decarbonisation, while it is emphasised that delaying adaptation will be more expensive in the long run than timely investments. That is why we now view climate change as a matter of managing business risks,” she added. Šćulac says that the sectors most exposed to higher costs due to high temperatures are those that depend on natural conditions or are energy-intensive. Agriculture is already facing the consequences of droughts and heavy rainfall that directly reduce yields.
This is also confirmed by data from the Ministry of Agriculture. The Strategic Study for the Agriculture Strategy states that high temperatures, droughts and large amounts of precipitation negatively affect agricultural production. In addition, when maximum daily temperatures above 30°C last for more than ten consecutive days, agricultural crops enter a state of heat stress and stop growing.
In agriculture, climate risk is first seen in yields, but for Croatia its broader economic consequences could be significantly greater in tourism. According to the European Commission Report for Croatia, the direct contribution to GDP is 11.8 percent, the highest among member states, while tourism-related sectors generate around a quarter of gross value added.
risks to tourism
“Due to high temperatures, guests are changing their habits and we can expect fewer of them to come during the hottest summer months. This means that the tourism sector will have to adapt its business models to the new climate circumstances and year-round tourism. Major challenges also await the construction sector, which must find a way to organise work on construction sites during extreme heat, while logistics and transport are already feeling the consequences of disruptions caused by droughts and low water levels,” Šćulac said.
8.7 percent is what the decline in productivity stood at back in 2024 due to warmer nights. Such a development could be particularly important for Croatia, whose tourism is strongly concentrated in the summer months. The European Environment Agency warns that climate change may affect the seasonality and geographical distribution of tourist demand also because of the growing risk of extreme heat.
“Paradoxically, the sector that is key to the transition is itself highly vulnerable. The energy sector is under pressure because droughts reduce hydropower production precisely when consumption is highest. That is why it is important to develop a balanced energy mix that includes renewable sources, but also – and this is crucial – a strong and modern electricity grid that will be able to accommodate an ever-increasing number of renewable energy sources. Since extreme weather conditions affect almost all sectors, the focus is on how ready each individual sector is to manage climate risks. Companies that invest in energy efficiency, digitalisation, their own renewable energy sources and resilient infrastructure will in the long run be more competitive than those that postpone adaptation,” Šćulac said.
Examples of the impact on logistics can be found everywhere, and the Dutch one stands out in particular because the Port of Rotterdam, as the largest and one of the most important, connects maritime traffic with river, rail and road transport and enables the distribution of goods in Europe. Cargo ships transporting chemicals, oil and other goods to and from Rotterdam can, due to low water levels, be loaded only to about 30 percent of capacity in order to prevent grounding, the Financial Times reported. This means that carriers have to pay for around 100 additional river cargo ships (barges) per week, yet still cannot transport the full quantity of goods as before the drought.
The World Bank in its 2025 report for Croatia estimates that, without additional action, climate events covered by their model alone could reduce Croatian GDP by up to 2.1 percent by 2050, with infrastructure, tourism and agriculture being particularly affected.
