Analysts Doubt the New Croatian Government Will Last

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Analyst reaction to the latest political developments in Croatia.

Given everything which has happened so far, the latest twist in the negotiations on forming a new government has been viewed with a bit of suspicion by political analysts, and even in the case that a coalition government between SDP and MOST is indeed formed, some of them do not believe it will last, reports Vecernji List on December 20, 2015.

Božo Skoko, professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Zagreb, explains that HDZ had to choose between two unpopular options – to enter a government together with SDP and MOST, or to remain in opposition and wait for possible early elections. For them, the first option was an uncertain adventure full of compromises, flattery and conflicts of greater or lesser intensity which would certainly follow. In such a government, they would not have been able to prove to their voters what they could do. Their members and supporters would have accused them of keeping their main opponents in power, people whom until literally yesterday they had been blaming for the destruction of the economy”, Skoko says.

He adds that HDZ, if they persist in their decision not to participate in the tripartite government, will lose in the short term but might win in the long term. If HDZ wisely uses the time spent in opposition, and the “reform government” does not meet voters’ expectations, at the next elections it would have the opportunity to successfully defeat both opponents and form a stable government. “By all accounts, we will not have to wait long for the next elections. In fact, bearing in mind Milanović’s ego, and the fact that MOST will have the prime minister and affect the selection of ministers from SDP, it is difficult to expect a stable government”, Skoko concludes.

Communication expert and political analyst Aleksandra Kolarić, who used to be a member of SDP before Milanović kicked her out of the party, points out that now it is obvious who is the winner of the elections, and that is MOST. Zoran Milanović has agreed to everything MOST asked for, while Tomislav Karamarko decided that it would be better to stay in opposition. “Of course, if there is no another twist like those which have happened previously”, Kolarić explains. She adds that, if MOST and Croatia Is Growing coalition do form a government, that will not be an easy situation for Božo Petrov and MOST, but she hopes that SDP will enter the coalition with sincere intentions and not try to break MOST apart, like it has tried to do during the negotiations so far.

“Milanović knelt down and threw his party on its knees to stay in power. He indicated that he was willing to do anything to hold on to power at all costs”, Kolarić concludes.

Krešimir Macan, a public relations expert and political analyst, is not surprised by the outcome. “Nobody can sign a blank cheque, it was to be expected that someone will say ‘no’, and obviously Karamarko was the first to lose his nerve. Last night, he found himself in the same situation as Zoran Milanović did last Saturday, when he said that MOST’s proposal does not make sense”, Macan explains. He believes that new elections are the best solution for a way out of this situation.


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