As the world comes to terms with the shock Trump victory in the US presidential election on November 8, 2016, questions will be asked about the polling industry, which got their predictions badly wrong. Not all of them, however… A quite spectacular prediction success story from Croatian technology.
As the reality of Donald J. Trump’s electoral victory sets in, the political polling industry will come under intense scrutiny in the coming days. How did they all get it so badly wrong? How is it possible that Hillary Clinton, who led in the polls for most of the race, including in several key battle states, could end up losing not only most of those states, but the election itself.
There was one poll predictor which bucked the trend, not only predicting a Trump victory, but almost perfectly predicting the individual state results. At time of writing, Wisconsin has just been projected for Trump, pushing him over the magical 270 figure, and confirming that he will indeed become the 45th President of the United States of America.
There is a certain irony in the Wisconsin result, as it is the first state in the 44 so far declared where the most accurate poll predictor of them all has called a state incorrectly.
“Our results differ considerably from the majority of the forecaster crowd for the following states: we give North Carolina and Florida to Trump (most label them as toss-ups), and we also give New Hampshire and, shockingly, Pennsylvania (!) to Trump. Not a single prediction model gives Pennsylvania to Trump, and only PEC gives Hillary a run for her money in New Hampshire. We also give Ohio and Iowa to Trump, while predicting that Hillary will take victories in Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado and New Mexico.”
Oraclum offers a new approach to polling and is the brainchild of three academics of Croatian descent, Vuk Vukovic, Dejan Vinkovic and Mike Sikic.
To learn more about the methodology and just how frighteningly accurate their predictions were, read their prediction for the US election 2016. If you are looking for a poll in the future, perhaps you might want to investigate this new Croatian-powered method, rather than the traditional methods…