February the 6th, 2025 – Croatian economic growth has been slowing but has remained resilient, with the country’s risk rating stable at BB1.
As Poslovni Dnevnik writes, Croatia’s membership in the Eurozone has continued to strengthen its financial stability and reduce economic risks. According to the latest Country Risk Atlas carried out by credit risk insurer Acredia in cooperation with Allianz Trade, Croatia’s risk rating remains stable at BB1, reflecting a moderate level of risk for businesses.
Croatia’s risk rating remains stable at BB1
Croatian economic growth has experienced a slowdown, with GDP growth slowing from +13% in 2021 to +7% in 2022 and +3.1% in 2023. Reliance on exports, especially tourism, and dependence on energy and food imports exposed Croatia to global price shocks back in 2022. However, limited trade ties with Russia following their invasion of Ukraine have shielded Croatia from the full impact of the European energy crisis and related sanctions.
Despite these challenges, the outlook for Croatian economic growth remains positive. Growth of +3.5% is expected to be the result of 2024, driven by strong domestic demand and investments supported by EU funds. Forecasts predict GDP expansion of +2.9% throughout 2025 and +2.7% in 2026, despite the impact that uncertainties such as the recovery of the Eurozone and possible trade wars could have on external demand.
“Croatian Eurozone accession has significantly reduced currency risks and strengthened overall financial stability,” explained Michael Kolb, a board member of ACREDIA Versicherung AG. “It’s a foundation that strengthens resilience to external shocks and strengthens investor confidence, providing medium-term economic stimulus.”
Inflation, which peaked at +13.5% back in 2022, moderated in 2023 and 2024 and is forecast to stabilise at +2.7% in 2025 and +2.3% in 2026. That is despite wage pressures and the phasing out of energy price subsidies. Croatia’s integration into the Eurozone further strengthens its position as a resilient and stable economy in the region.
Croatia’s risks have improved, but challenges remain
Overall, the risk rating improved for 48 countries (+27 compared to the previous year), which represents about 17% of global GDP. Emerging markets in particular benefited the most from these improvements. Latin America leads the list with thirteen improvements, followed by ten countries from across Europe and nine from the Asia-Pacific region.
Only five countries received a reduced rating (+1). They’re primarily in the Middle East, including Bahrain, Israel and Kuwait. “The reasons for these downgrades lie in the continuous disruptions in supply chains and the drop in crude oil prices below the fiscal break-even point for these countries,” explained Michael Kolb, Board Member of ACREDIA Versicherung AG. However, the risk for Croatia remains high exposure to geopolitical and financial tensions expected in the coming months.
company risks?
According to Acredia, positive economic development throughout the 2025-2026 period could be compromised by several factors. Key risks include geopolitical tensions, rising protectionism with the possibility of a full trade escalation, and increasing social divisions in developed and emerging markets.
“A full-scale trade war would have very serious consequences: the loss of economic dynamism and a resurgence of inflationary pressures could significantly undermine investor confidence,” warned Michael Kolb. Furthermore, growing social polarisation and more frequent civil unrest are exacerbating economic challenges.
